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Is the U.S. labor market sliding into its own version of the 1970s? Data shows slower recruiting, stubborn wages and a whiff of “stagflation” that has one economist reaching for historical comparisons.
But before visions of gas lines and double-digit unemployment set in, Andrew Flowers, chief economist at programmatic recruitment marketing firm Appcast, offers a critical caveat: “Mild stagflation does not mean a dire recession.”
Economic uncertainty and recruiting
In his assessment, Flowers describes a labor market with elevated wage growth and a divide between “standing up” and “sitting down” jobs. These trends, he writes in a recent blog post, may continue or worsen due to policy uncertainty, including immigration restrictions, tariff volatility, Medicaid cuts, threats to Fed independence and the current government shutdown.
Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast
“With no signs yet of a major labor market recession or wage-price spike,” Flowers notes, what’s happening is something potentially more vexing for HR leaders: a market that’s cooling without actually loosening.
‘Contrary signals’ in recruiting
Recruiting has downshifted, yet wages remain elevated and labor shortages persist across industries—a combination that leaves talent acquisition teams navigating contradictory signals.
It’s a precarious balancing act. The economic uncertainty makes predictions treacherous, and
