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The debate over AI’s impact on the workplace has moved from speculation to reality, as evidence of jobs lost to AI emerges. New research from Stanford University analyzing millions of payroll records through July 2025 reveals that generative AI is already creating significant employment disruptions.
This research represents one of the first large-scale, real-time analyses of AI’s impact on employment, according to report co-author Erik Brynjolfsson. Titled Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence, the study used comprehensive payroll data from ADP, covering millions of workers across tens of thousands of firms.
Jobs lost to AI: Who is hardest hit?
The researchers tracked employment patterns, revealing that early-career workers aged 22-25 in what they called “AI-exposed” occupations had experienced a 13% relative decline in employment since late 2022, when ChatGPT launched and AI adoption accelerated. What are these jobs? The researchers identified software engineers and customer service agents as examples of two occupations that are frequently considered to be highly exposed to generative AI tools.
Employment for software developers in this age group, for instance, had declined nearly 20% by July 2025, while opportunities for more experienced developers in the same companies grew or
